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Nikkynub

15 Jun 2025 - 09:55 pm

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15 Jun 2025 - 08:57 pm

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15 Jun 2025 - 06:57 pm

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Michaelsef

15 Jun 2025 - 06:02 pm

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
после анального секса
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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15 Jun 2025 - 05:20 pm

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Nikkynub

15 Jun 2025 - 03:58 pm

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Timothybreex

15 Jun 2025 - 03:34 pm

Curve Finance: Leading DeFi Liquidity and Stablecoin Protocol
curve finance crypto
Curve Finance is a decentralized exchange (DEX) optimized for stablecoin and low-volatility asset trading. Known for its efficient liquidity pools and low slippage, Curve has become a cornerstone in the DeFi ecosystem for stable asset swaps and liquidity provision.

Curve Fi
Curve Fi refers to the platform's core protocol that enables users to swap stablecoins and other similar assets with minimal slippage and low fees. It leverages specialized liquidity pools to facilitate efficient trading.

Curve Finance Crypto
Curve finance crypto encompasses the native tokens (such as CRV), liquidity provider tokens, and other assets within the Curve ecosystem. These tokens are used for governance, staking, and earning rewards.

Curve DeFi
Curve DeFi describes the broader decentralized finance ecosystem built around Curve’s liquidity pools and protocols. It includes yield farming, liquidity mining, and integrations with other DeFi platforms like Yearn, Convex, and more.

Curve Finance Liquidity Pool
A Curve liquidity pool is a smart contract that holds assets like stablecoins or similar tokens, allowing users to deposit and earn fees or rewards. These pools are optimized for low slippage and high efficiency, supporting large trading volumes.

Curve Finance Borrow
While primarily known for liquidity provision and swaps, Curve also supports borrowing mechanisms indirectly through integrations with lending protocols like Aave or Compound, where users can collateralize assets and borrow against their liquidity pool tokens.

Timmylaw

15 Jun 2025 - 02:59 pm

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